Climatology Research Articles

Burden of Stroke Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperature in 204 Countries and Territories: A Population-Based Study, 1990-2019.

Stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature needs more attention with dramatic climate change. The aim of this study was to estimate the global burden and distribution characteristics of the burden. In this ecological study, we collected data from the Climate Research Unit Gridded Time Series, the World Bank databases, and the Global Burden of Diseases study to estimate the distribution of burden. We used the joinpoint model, decomposition analysis, age-period-cohort model, panel data analysis, and health inequality analysis to assess the different types of stroke burden attributable to different climatic conditions. The burden of stroke attributable to nonoptimal temperature continued to grow, and aging was a key factor in this increase. In 2019, 521,031 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 402,433-663,996) deaths and 9,423,649 (95% UI 7,207,660-12,055,172) disability-adjusted life years [DALYs] attributable to stroke due to nonoptimal temperature were recorded globally. Globally, men (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR] 7.70, 95% UI 5.80-9.73; age-standardized DALY rate [ASDR] 139.69, 95% UI 102.96-178.54 in 2019) had a heavier burden than women (ASMR 5.89, 95% UI 4.50-7.60; ASDR 96.02, 95% UI 72.62-123.85 in 2019). Central Asia (ASMR 18.12, 95% UI 13.40-24.53; ASDR 327.35, 95% UI 240.24-440.61 in 2019) had the heaviest burden at the regional level. In the national level, North Macedonia (ASMR 32.97, 95% UI 20.57-47.44 in 2019) and Mongolia (ASDR 568.54, 95% UI 242.03-1,031.14 in 2019) had the highest ASMR/ASDR, respectively. Low temperature currently contributes to the main burden (deaths 474,002, 95% UI 355,077-606,537; DALYs 8,357,198, 95% UI 6,186,217-10,801,911 attributable to low temperature vs deaths 48,030, 95% UI 5,630-104,370; DALYs 1,089,329, 95% UI 112,690-2,375,345 attributable to high temperature in 2019). However, the burden due to high temperature has increased rapidly, especially among people aged older than 10 years, and was disproportionately concentrated in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions such as Africa. In addition, the rapid increase in the stroke burden due to high temperature in Central Asia also requires special attention. This is the first study to assess the global stroke burden attributed to nonoptimal temperature. The dramatic increase in the burden due to high temperature requires special attention, especially in low-SDI countries.

Climate model selection via conformal clustering of spatial functional data

AbstractClimate model selection stands as a critical process in climate science and research. It involves choosing the most appropriate climate models to address specific research questions, simulating climate behaviour, or making projections about future climate conditions. This paper proposes a new approach, using spatial functional data analysis, to asses which of the 18 EURO CORDEX simulation models work better for predicting average temperatures in the Campania region (Italy). The method involves two key steps: first, using functional data analysis to process climate variables and select optimal models by a hierarchical clustering procedure; second, validating the chosen models by proposing a new conformal prediction approach to the anomalies associated to each cluster.

Indigenous and colonial influences on Amazonian forests

Societal Impact StatementGlobal climate models that incorporate carbon sources and sinks usually consider that forest uptake of carbon is in a state of equilibrium. Both historical and paleoecological records suggest that this is commonly not the case for Amazonia. Here, the impacts of colonial practices on Amazonian Indigenous peoples and forests are reviewed. Human activities affect forests' successional stages, trajectories, and species composition. By increasing the spatial coverage of paleoecological records that focus on pre‐ and post‐Columbian periods, the long‐term interactions between humans and Amazonian forests and their role in affecting Earth's climate may be better understood.SummaryLegacy effects left by the activities of Indigenous people in Amazonia are well known. Although severe, widespread, and recently occurring, the impacts left post‐1492 CE have been less investigated. We review the impact of colonial practices on Indigenous peoples and Amazonian forests. We suggest that forests comprise the sum of their past events, in a mosaic of different cumulative successional trajectories depending on the type, frequency, intensity, and timing of human influence. In regions with a history of minimal human influence, old‐growth species sensitive to fire would be the dominant landscape. In regions with high pre‐Columbian and low colonial influence, old‐growth forests carrying pre‐Columbian ecological legacies would be prevalent. Regions occupied by Indigenous groups post‐1492 CE would also carry similar ecological legacies. In regions influenced by the Jesuits, mid‐successional forests are expected to be enriched with cacao trees. In regions of latex extraction during the rubber boom, mid‐growth forests would present high abundances of early and mid‐successional species and depletion of some species. In deforested areas, we expect early successional forests with influence of exotic useful species. This patchwork of history probably plays a large role in shaping today's forests, and the biodiversity and carbon dynamics documented within them. Paleoecological work focusing on the last millennium, although scarce, has the potential to detect these mosaics of past human influence, and they should be considered when estimating forest ages and successional stages across the basin.

Climate Literacy in the Age of Global Climate Change: A Critical Inquiry into Shaping Climate –Literate Society for a Sustainable Future

Climate Change is a multidimensional challenge in the twenty-first century. The challenges venting out of the consequences of climate change are mainly due to a lack of information and knowledge to combat it. It is important to build a climate-literate society to address and combat the consequences of ecological catastrophe. There is a need for cutting-edge knowledge on understanding the nuances of critical components of climate science, which is the need of the hour. Henceforth, climate literacy is an understanding of anthropogenic impact driven by human activities that have led to planetary crisis; cultivating ecological skills and thought processes, with a pragmatic vision of providing a tool to build a sustainable world in the era of climate change world. The role of educators and academic institutions in nurturing environmental stewardship becomes a vital for taking a step forward to a sustainable future in the cocoon of sustainable development goals. This paper will explore and address the vision of cultivating climate literacy as a framework for sustainable development and addressing climate resilience in the age of global climate change. The aim of the study is to identify the efficacy of Climate Change Education (CCE) initiatives and to trace few of the best practices and methods for developing a climate-literate society. As we introspect into the future outcome of the present study, it will envision climate literate society and decision-making processes at individual, institutional, and governmental levels for promoting sustainability and millennium development goals. Thus, it calls for action, emphasising the urgency of humanising climate literacy to empower current and future generations to contribute meaningfully to the global environmental sustainability and resilience effort.

Characterization of the airborne aerosol inlet and transport system used during the A-LIFE aircraft field experiment

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol particles have a profound impact on Earth's climate by scattering and absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and by impacting the properties of clouds. Research aircraft such as the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) Falcon are widely used to study aerosol particles in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. However, transporting a representative sample to the instrumentation inside the aircraft remains a challenge due to high airspeeds and changing ambient conditions. In particular, for high-quality coarse-mode aerosol measurements, knowledge about losses or enhancements in the aerosol sampling system is crucial. In this study, the sampling efficiency of the aerosol inlet aboard the Falcon research aircraft is characterized for the first time with state-of-the art in situ measurements including sizing instruments operated behind the Falcon aerosol inlet and mounted at the aircraft wing not affected by the aerosol inlet. Sampling efficiencies were derived for different true airspeed ranges by comparing the in-cabin and ”full”-size-range particle number size distributions during 174 flight sequences with a major contribution of mineral dust particles during the ”Absorbing aerosol layers in a changing climate: aging, lifetime and dynamics” project (A-LIFE). Additionally, experimentally derived Stokes numbers were used to calculate the cutoff diameter of the aerosol sampling system for different particle densities as a function of true airspeed. As expected, the results show that the velocity of the research aircraft has a major impact on the sampling of coarse-mode aerosol particles with in-cabin instruments. For true airspeeds up to about 190 m s−1, aerosol particles larger than about 1 µm are depleted in the sampling system of the Falcon during the A-LIFE project. In contrast, for true airspeeds higher than 190 m s−1, an enhancement of particles up to a diameter of 4 µm is observed. For even larger particles, the enhancement effect at the inlet is still present, but inertial and gravitational particle losses in the transport system get more and more pronounced, which leads to a decreasing overall sampling efficiency. In summary, aerosol particles are either depleted or enhanced in the Falcon aerosol inlet, whereas transport in sampling lines always leads to a loss of particles. Here, we have considered both effects and determined the cutoff diameter for the A-LIFE transport system (i.e., the sampling lines only), the cutoff diameter of the Falcon aerosol inlet (i.e., the effect of the inlet only), and the combined effect of the inlet and sampling lines.

Opinion: New directions in atmospheric research offered by research infrastructures combined with open and data-intensive science

Abstract. The acquisition and dissemination of essential information for understanding global biogeochemical interactions between the atmosphere and ecosystems and how climate–ecosystem feedback loops may change atmospheric composition in the future comprise a fundamental prerequisite for societal resilience in the face of climate change. In particular, the detection of trends and seasonality in the abundance of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate-active atmospheric constituents is an important aspect of climate science. Therefore, easy and fast access to reliable, long-term, and high-quality observational environmental data is recognised as fundamental to research and the development of environmental forecasting and assessment services. In our opinion article, we discuss the potential role that environmental research infrastructures in Europe (ENVRI RIs) can play in the context of an integrated global observation system. In particular, we focus on the role of the atmosphere-centred research infrastructures ACTRIS (Aerosol, Clouds and Trace Gases Research Infrastructure), IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Observing System), and ICOS (Integrated Carbon Observation System), also referred to as ATMO-RIs, with their capabilities for standardised collection and provision of long-term and high-quality observational data, complemented by rich metadata. The ATMO-RIs provide data through open access and offer data interoperability across different research fields including all fields of environmental sciences and beyond. As a result of these capabilities in data collection and provision, we elaborate on the novel research opportunities in atmospheric sciences which arise from the combination of open-access and interoperable observational data, tools, and technologies offered by data-intensive science and the emerging collaboration platform ENVRI-Hub, hosted by the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC).

Emphasizes the Importance of Safety Behavior by Optimizing Safety Leadership and Safety Knowledge through a Safety Climate

Purpose: This study aims to comprehensively examine and empirically test how safety behavior can be realized, by optimizing the role of safety leadership and safety knowledge so as to create a safety climate. Theoritical Framework: This study uses two theories as the logic of the relationship between the variables studied. Related to the role of safety leadership, the Full-Range Leadership Model theory is applied, while the planned behaviour theory is used to explain the resulting behaviour. Design/methodologi/approach: The population in this study were employees of manufacturing companies in Banyumas. Starting with providing willingness forms to 15 companies, only 9 companies were willing. While the sample involved with work safety management activities directly was 792 samples. The questionnaire was given openly and randomly, using accidental sampling. The questionnaires collected and included in the criteria were 427 respondents. Finding: That it has been empirically proven that safety behavior is influenced by safety leadership and safety knowledge through safety climate Research, Pratical & Social Implication: This research has theoretical implications and practical implications. Theoretically, it is an additional knowledge of the application of work safety behaviour in manufacturing companies. While practically it is an evaluation for companies in implementing safety management. Originality, value: The originality of this research apart from the conceptual framework is also from the object of research which is carried out on several manufacturing companies with different criteria and implementing a work safety management system. And similar research has never been done especially in Indonesia

The where, when, and how of ooid formation: What ooids tell us about ancient seawater chemistry

Ooids are a common constituent of carbonate rock throughout the last 3.2 billion years. The chemical and physical characteristics of ooids record essential details of the carbonate chemistry and hydrodynamic conditions of their depositional environment. As a result, ooids may be a powerful tool for reconstructing Earth's ancient climates and environments. However, lack of constraints on fundamental aspects of ooid formation, such as the role of abrasion, underscores the potential for additional discoveries utilizing ooids as paleoenvironmental proxies. Here, we use three-dimensional models built by serially grinding and imaging ooids to show how ooid shape changes during growth. We find that ooid abrasion plays only a small role in the formation of ooids, even in giant ooids, where the mass should cause abrasion to be most intense. A lack of abrasion during ooid formation suggests a greater sensitivity of ooid distribution and size to the chemistry of depositional environments. This insight enables us to harmonize our understanding of ooid formation with longstanding questions regarding their spatial and temporal distribution, as well as size variations. With a new database of ooid occurrences, we analyze the influence of seawater chemistry, carbonate shelf area, and evolutionary developments on ooid abundance in the Modern, Last Glacial Period, and throughout the Phanerozoic. Finally, we leverage our new understanding of ooid growth to show how ooid size, including giant ooids, can shed light on relative changes in alkalinity throughout the Phanerozoic.

A medical language for climate discourse

A medical language for climate discourse

Wizards of Climate Science: Ancient Magicians in the Court of Big Science

Myths inform real-world decision making. Scientific simulation models can do the same. Neither reflects their real-world targets perfectly. They are most useful in an apophatic sense: employing them as the best tools available without confusing their indications with Truth. The actions and choices of wizards often reflect those of scientists; drawing parallels is informative and several questions will be explored within this framework. How is a climate scientist to respond when offered a Faustian agreement promising limited insights? As scientists, how might we better communicate scientific limits regarding which aspects of the future we can see clearly and which we cannot? Should we risk casting doubt on the as-good-as-it-gets science underlying anthropogenic climate change? If an electorate requires certainty of a threat before it will vote for action, are lies of omission or misrepresentation justified? Is it ethical for scientists whose research is relevant to the policy process to pause their typical vigorous scientific criticism of overinterpretation by others (particularly in sciences downstream from physical science) when their science is thought not adequate for purpose? Should scientists merely advise, presenting the relevant science as neutrally as they can, or advocate by emphasizing evidence that supports their preferred course of action, or become activists overselling their science to achieve well-motivated policy ends by whatever means required?

Predicting the vertical density structure of oceanic gravity current intrusions

Understanding the dynamics and structures in the deep ocean is one of the remaining challenges in oceanography and climate sciences. We present results from large-scale laboratory experiments of rotating down-slope gravity currents intruding into a two-layer stratified ambient, performed in the largest rotating tank in the world, the Coriolis Rotating Platform in Grenoble. By means of velocity and density measurements, we show that no mixing occurs once the current has detached from the boundary. The shape of the vertical density profile in the stratified receiving ambient enables to identify two distinct regimes: the first issued by laminar transport through Ekman dynamics, the second by turbulent transport due to intermittent dense water cascading. Vertical density gradients reveal a piece-wise linear dependence on the density anomaly for the turbulent transport, suggesting an advection-diffusion process. For the turbulent regime, the scale height is deduced and an analytical model based on the critical Froude number is proposed to predict its value. Results show that the total thickness of the intruding current is on average 2.5 times the scale height. For laminar intrusions the scale height diverges whereas the thickness of the intrusion is a few times the Ekman layer thickness. Comparing the intrusion scale height with its measured vertical extension has led to a criteria to distinguish between laminar and turbulent regimes, which is corroborated by two additional independent criteria, one based on the sign of the local vorticity and the other based on the local maxima of the vertical density gradient. The model allows us to connect laboratory experiments to deep sea observations, gravity currents and Meddies and emphasizes the importance of laboratory experiments in understanding climate dynamics.

Locally narrow droplet size distributions are ubiquitous in stratocumulus clouds.

Marine stratocumulus clouds are the "global reflectors," sharply contrasting with the underlying dark ocean surface and exerting a net cooling on Earth's climate. The magnitude of this cooling remains uncertain in part owing to the averaged representation of microphysical processes, such as the droplet-to-drizzle transition in global climate models (GCMs). Current GCMs parameterize cloud droplet size distributions as broad, cloud-averaged gammas. Using digital holographic measurements of discrete stratocumulus cloud volumes, we found cloud droplet size distributions to be narrower at the centimeter scale, never resembling the cloud average. These local distributions tended to form pockets of similar-looking cloud regions, each characterized by a size distribution shape that is diluted to varying degrees. These observations open the way for new modeling representations of microphysical processes.

Earth Systems and Climate Change

Earth Systems and Climate Change

Regional climate change: consensus, discrepancies, and ways forward

Climate change has emerged across many regions. Some observed regional climate changes, such as amplified Arctic warming and land-sea warming contrasts have been predicted by climate models. However, many other observed regional changes, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature and monsoon rainfall are not well simulated by climate model ensembles even when taking into account natural internal variability and structural uncertainties in the response of models to anthropogenic radiative forcing. This suggests climate model predictions may not fully reflect what our future will look like. The discrepancies between models and observations are not well understood due to several real and apparent puzzles and limitations such as the “signal-to-noise paradox” and real-world record-shattering extremes falling outside of the possible range predicted by models. Addressing these discrepancies, puzzles and limitations is essential, because understanding and reliably predicting regional climate change is necessary in order to communicate effectively about the underlying drivers of change, provide reliable information to stakeholders, enable societies to adapt, and increase resilience and reduce vulnerability. The challenges of achieving this are greater in the Global South, especially because of the lack of observational data over long time periods and a lack of scientific focus on Global South climate change. To address discrepancies between observations and models, it is important to prioritize resources for understanding regional climate predictions and analyzing where and why models and observations disagree via testing hypotheses of drivers of biases using observations and models. Gaps in understanding can be discovered and filled by exploiting new tools, such as artificial intelligence/machine learning, high-resolution models, new modeling experiments in the model hierarchy, better quantification of forcing, and new observations. Conscious efforts are needed toward creating opportunities that allow regional experts, particularly those from the Global South, to take the lead in regional climate research. This includes co-learning in technical aspects of analyzing simulations and in the physics and dynamics of regional climate change. Finally, improved methods of regional climate communication are needed, which account for the underlying uncertainties, in order to provide reliable and actionable information to stakeholders and the media.

Characteristics of extreme meteorological droughts over the Brazilian Pantanal throughout the 21st century

The Brazilian Pantanal is a remarkable ecosystem, encompassing vital aspects such as fish, fruit, and grain production, greenhouse gas emission regulation, temperature and precipitation modulation, and groundwater recharge. However, 2019 and 2020 experienced prolonged and severe drought that profoundly impacted the Pantanal region. Although these impacts are still under review, their effects on wildlife, vegetation, and the local population are undeniable. To enhance our understanding of the magnitude and consequences of the 2019/2020 drought, the present study conducted a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrences in the Pantanal biome. Utilizing two well-established drought indices, the standard precipitation index (SPI) and the standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), we analyzed the available observational data provided by the Climate Research Unit (CRU). Additionally, we endeavored to project droughts throughout the 21st century, thereby facilitating the visualization of potential reoccurrences of hazardous events in the Pantanal area. Two regional climate model (RCM) ensembles, the Eta ensemble (E1) and CORDEX ensemble (E2), along with representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) were used to project the severity of droughts in the Brazilian Pantanal until 2098/2099. The findings indicate that the hydrological year of 2019/2020 was the driest on record in the Pantanal over the past 80 years. The E1 ensemble did not project such an extreme event, whereas the E2 ensemble forecasted extreme droughts before the 2040s under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Using the SPEI, both ensembles showed similar results, with extreme droughts projected toward the end of the 21st century. Notably, the SPI demonstrated effectiveness in detecting short-term droughts, while the SPEI was more efficient for long-term assessments, projecting extreme drought events for the last two decades. The SPEI, employed with the Eta and CORDEX ensembles, can provide valuable insights into drought projections. Moreover, the potential recurrence of extreme droughts, characterized by significant below-average precipitation spanning vast areas throughout the hydrological year, poses a severe threat to the Pantanal biome in this century.

Global Precipitation Experiment - A New World Climate Research Programme Lighthouse Activity

Abstract The future state of the global water cycle and prediction of freshwater availability for humans around the world remain among the challenges of climate research and are relevant to several United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. The Global Precipitation EXperiment (GPEX) takes on the challenge of improving the prediction of precipitation quantity, phase, timing and intensity, characteristics that are products of a complex integrated system. It will achieve this by leveraging existing World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) activities and community capabilities in satellite, surface-based, and airborne observations, modeling and experimental research, and by conducting new and focused activities. It was launched in October 2023 as a WCRP Lighthouse Activity. Here we present an overview of the GPEX Science Plan that articulates the primary science questions related to precipitation measurements, process understanding, model performance and improvements, and plans for capacity development. The central phase of GPEX is the WCRP Years of Precipitation for 2-3 years with coordinated global field campaigns focusing on different storm types (atmospheric rivers, mesoscale convective systems, monsoons, and tropical cyclones, among others) over different regions and seasons. Activities are planned over the three phases (before, during, and after the Years of Precipitation) spanning a decade. These include gridded data evaluation and development, advanced modeling, enhanced understanding of processes critical to precipitation, multi-scale prediction of precipitation events across scales, and capacity development. These activities will be further developed as part of the GPEX Implementation Plan.

Revealing isochoric water nucleation: a visual study

The phenomena of water freezing at constant volume, or isochoric, is becoming more and more fascinating. However, because the system is subjected to extremely high pressures, it is exceedingly challenging to investigate it visually. Fewer properties have been found visually up till now, but many have been found through other means. Nevertheless, we were able to design a reactor so that it could be observed through a microscope as water was frozen and thawed at constant volume, reaching temperatures as low as − 12 °C and pressures up to 129 MPa. In this study, we observed critical characteristics visually, focusing on the location of the ice nucleus, its shape, and dynamics. Phase transitions from liquid to solid state are essential mechanisms in the physical sciences. The creation of ice stands as the quintessential and pervasive example of nucleation, playing a central role in diverse disciplines such as geology, biology, aviation, and climate research.

ODS lecture, development studies association 2023 stories from the Global South: the interplay of climate science, ‘action’ and the implications for development

ABSTRACT Calls for humanity to act on environmental changes are becoming increasingly critical. The growing polycrisis including the impact of ongoing conflicts in contested geopolitical spaces and the struggles for ways to sustain a livelihood in areas of precarity and poverty, are just some of the intersecting challenges which have given rise to a Code Red alarm by the United Nations surrounding issues related to climate change. Rich narratives and stories of climate actions from Africa offer examples of potential paths. This paper explores how such narratives inform local development and climate action. A key message is that stories and narratives, created by various peoples, disciplines, and systems of knowledge, can all be powerful genres and sources for agentic change that can inspire and embolden development practice and action.

Climate change and its impact on asthma.

Earth's climate is changing at an unprecedented pace, primarily due to anthropogenic causes including greenhouse gas emissions. Evidence shows a strong link between climate change and its effects on asthma. Healthcare professionals must be educated to advocate for and lead effective strategies to reduce the health risks of climate change.

Seasonal to interannual variations of daily growth rate of a Tridacna shell from Palau Island, western Pacific, and paleoclimatic implications

Seasonal-interannual climate change is an important component of Earth's climate system and has a significant impact on ecosystems and social systems. However, the short-run of modern observational data limits our understanding of the seasonal-interannual climates on long-term timescales. The natural archives can provide information on climate change before the industrial period, but most of their temporal resolution is too low to capture the seasonal-interannual climate signals. Tridacna spp. is the largest marine bivalve, and its shell has the potential to trace climatic/environmental changes on a daily to interannual scale. In this study, we investigated the daily growth pattern of a modern Tridacna gigas shell (PL-1) from Palau based on laser scanning confocal microscopy images. The results showed that the growth pattern of PL-1 was affected by effective solar radiation primarily, followed by nutrients on the seasonal timescale. On the interannual timescale, the growth rate of the shell was modulated by ENSO, which affected the effective solar radiation and nutrients accepted by Tridacna. The growth rate of Tridacna PL-1 was accelerated during the ENSO positive phase, and vice versa. However, due to a lack of situ observations, the effects of nutrients on Tridacna and the symbiotic zooxanthella in detail need to be further investigated. This study indicates that the daily growth rate of Tridacna shells in equatorial regions may have the potential to reconstruct seasonal-interannual climate/environment variations.